Below our resident Monday Moaner Tony tells us the truth about Brexit. This is how he sees The UK’s exit from The European Union. Mr and Mrs 50 Plus aren’t as optimistic as Tony … just saying …
The Truth About Brexit
The hype, as we approach the leaving date of 11.00pm on Friday, 29 March 2019, will increase and then crescendo. I wish it was otherwise. Nobody knows what is going to happen: 90% of what is in the media is ill-informed and/or just hysterical.
I hope the following notes will help you retain your sense of optimism:
The founding Treaty of Rome was signed on 25 March 1957 by six countries including France and West Germany to create the European Economic Community (EEC). The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 removed the word ‘economic’. In 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon renamed it, ‘The Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union’. Britain and Ireland joined in 1973. In 1975, Harold Wilson (Labour PM) held a Referendum on continued membership: YES 67.2%, NO 32.8%. There are now 28 members, soon to be 27.
- The EU was formed to stop Germany and France fighting each other. Two world wars were simply enough for everyone.
- The Treaty of Rome and subsequent agreements were written to deter any country trying to leave.
- No country has ever left the EU. Brexit is a step into the unknown.
From the beginning, the Conservative party was split almost 50/50 in respect of continued membership. Margaret Thatcher applied the iron fist. The Tony Blair years (1997 – 2007) saw the Labour leader agreeing to anything the EU wanted because he viewed himself as the Emperor of Europe. Blair’s attempts to get the UK to join the eurozone were, in 1997, defeated by the Treasury, Gordon Brown and Ed Balls, who devised five tests that the UK could never meet. We have never joined the eurozone.
- The UK owes Gordon Brown and Ed Balls a debt of gratitude. But for them, Blair would have joined the eurozone and we would now be bailing out bankrupt EU members such as Greece and Spain.
- The Tory infighting over the EU almost destroyed John Major both as PM and as a person.
The Brexit Referendum
The Referendum held in 2016 was not just about the UK membership of the EU. It was a desperately ill thought through throw of the dice by the hopelessly inept David Cameron to keep the Tories together. All it proved was the Conservative Party remains completely split on the EU.
- The negotiations led by the self-satisfied and ineffective David Davis (promised a peerage?) and our completely outdated Civil Service have been a farce. There has been no progress made. The PM’s Deal is not a Deal. It is a wish-list for further negotiations. As the EU cannot/will not agree on anything, it is not a Deal.
- At this point, NOBODY knows what is going to happen.
The 2017 General Election was a disgraceful performance by Theresa May who, as always, relied on her advisers. She called the General Election without telling anyone including her Cabinet. She ‘lost’ because she said she would not conduct TV interviews and Jeremy Corbyn outsmarted her.
- The Confidence and Supply Agreement with the DUP was made solely to keep TM in power. It was CRAZY. The Northern Ireland Assembly comprises mainly the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein and the UK goes and signs up with one side. MAD. There has been no Northern Ireland Assembly for over two and half years. It is being run by London based civil servants.
- There cannot be a hard border between the Republic of Ireland (EU member) and Northern Ireland (non-EU member) because no politician wants to be associated with memories of the Irish terrorist problems, bombings and the rest.
- Nobody knows what to do about the Ireland border. The answer is a united Ireland which may happen within ten/twenty years.
- Ireland play rugby as one nation (Ulster, Leinster, Connacht and Munster). They always have done.
What Will Happen After Brexit?
- TM will cling to power to June 2022, the date of the next General Election.
- Labour simply has too many internal conflicts. Labour can only overcome these, if, and when, there is a General Election .
What Might Happen After Our Exit from The European Union?
The real possibility is a Western/Global recession. All the signs are there. The recent announcement by Nissan in Sunderland used Brexit shamefully. Nissan is struggling to sell cars. The EU itself has some serious issues to face in Germany (economic downtown), Italy (political and economic with the north continuing to resent their funding of the south), Greece (broke), Spain (broke) and so on. Other countries are facing right wing coalitions. France is simply France.
What David Cameron did, without realising, was to get the EU (all 27 + UK) members to agree on something: their dislike of the British.
Are we Optimistic?
YES YES YES – we are!
- We are one of the greatest trading nations the world has ever seen. At one point the Empire covered half the globe. Those instincts remain.
- There will a period of great difficulty but a Phoenix will rise, our business community will sort things out, and we will prosper again.
- Ireland will unite, Scotland will vote for independence and England and Wales, together, will become one of the most successful countries in the world.
- Never forget the stabilising influence of our Sovereign. Our Queen is one of the greatest monarchs the world has ever seen and we so want her to go on and on for ever. It is a pity that Prince Charles doesn’t prepare to abdicate when his time comes. Our younger people so love the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, not forgetting the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
This Moan is entirely MY opinion. All hate mail to me, please.